Rashin nasarar da ba ta kasance ba. Ba a yi nasarar tsinkaya ba a fagen fasaha

Tunda wani yace haka mutum ya kai iyakar inventiveness kuma babu wani wuri don inganta na gaba, yin tsinkaya dangane da fasaha hanya ce tabbatacciya don yin wautar kanku. Fiye da duka, saboda wanda ya faɗi hakan shine sanatan Roman Julius Frontenus a AD 10.

A wani labarin na sake haifuwa da tsinkaya daga wani babban jami'in kamfanin IBM akan abin da makomar masana'antar zata kasance. A cikin wannan zan tattara abubuwan da ke zuwa nan gaba wadanda ba haka ba. Ga jerin tsinkayen da suka gaza

Ire-iren Hasashen Fasaha Na Kasa

Rashin yin hasashen tasirin sabbin fasahohi Suna iri biyu; Don tabbatarwa gazawar fasahohin da suka yi nasara o caca a kan nasarar fasahohin da suka gaza. Tabbas, a halin na ƙarshe ba shi yiwuwa a yi magana game da gazawa tunda a yawancin lamura waɗannan fasahar daga baya sun sami nasara ko kuma sun ƙarfafa wasu da suka yi.

Rashin nasarar da ba ta kasance ba

A cikin 1878, yana ba da ra'ayinsa ta wayaWilliam Preece, Babban Injiniyan Jaridar British Post, ya ce:

Amurkawa na bukatar waya, amma ba mu bukata. Muna da manzanni da yawa.

1878 ba ze zama shekara mai fa'ida ga Burtaniya ba. Wani farfesa a Oxford mai suna Erasmus Wilson ya faɗi game da hasken lantarki:

Lokacin da Baje kolin Duniya a Paris ya ƙare, wutar lantarki za ta ƙare kuma ba za a sake jin batun ba.

A cikin 1913 wani mai gabatar da kara ya tuhumi mai kirkirar Lee DeForest da yaudarar sayar da hannayen jari ta hanyar wasiku don nasa kamfanin radiotelephony. A cewar mai gabatar da kara:

Lee DeForest ya fada a jaridu da yawa cewa zai yiwu a watsa muryar mutum a fadin tekun Atlantika kafin shekaru masu yawa. Dangane da waɗannan maganganun na wauta da ɓatarwa da gangan, jama'a ba daidai ba ... an shawo kansu su sayi hannun jari a kamfanin ku ...

Shekaru uku daga baya ya zo da gudummawar Charles Chaplin ga wannan jerin takaddun:

Cinema bai wuce wuce gona da iri ba. Wasan kwaikwayo ne na gwangwani Abin da masu sauraro ke so su gani shine nama da jini a fage.

Wani "mai hangen nesa" shine Darryl zanuck, 20th Century Fox mai shirya fim wanda a 1946 ya ce:

Talabijan ba za ta iya kula da duk kasuwar da ta kama ba sama da watanni 6. Da sannu mutane za su gaji da kallon akwatin plywood kowane dare.

Mun zo ga 1959 inda IBM ya aikata ɗayan almararsa wanda zai haifar da koma baya

Kasuwa mai yuwuwa a duniya don injunan kwafin hoto 5.000 ne mafi yawa.

10 shekaru kafin, kamfanin kafa Thomas Watson ya bayyana:

Ina tsammanin akwai kasuwar duniya don watakila kwakwalwa 5.

Tabbas, a cikin shekarun 60, Mujallar lokaci tabbatar wa masu karatu cewa:

Kodayake sayan nesa yana yiwuwa, amma ƙarshe zai gaza.

A 1995, wanda ya kafa kamfanin 3Com ya yi matukar gamsuwa

Na yi hasashen cewa yanar-gizo ba da daɗewa ba za ta shiga cikin wani yanayi mai ban mamaki kuma a cikin 1996 za ta faɗi cikin haɗari.

Har ila yau a cikin 95, Clifford Stoll, Q.wanda a fili yake masanin ilmin lissafi ne kuma masanin komputa ne, bai yi jinkirin kulawa ba:

Kodayake akwai ingantacciyar hanyar aika kuɗi ta Intanet - wanda babu - yanar gizo ta ɓace wani muhimmin sinadarin jari hujja: masu siyarwa.

Shekaru biyu baya, shigarwa zuwa wannan jerin Daga Michael Dell, wanda ya kafa kamfanin komputa mai suna wanda yayi tsokaci akan menene Zai yi tare da Apple.

Zai rufe ta kuma ya mayar da kuɗin ga hannun jarin.

Apple '97 ba shine wanda yake yanzu ba. Kamfanin bai yi nasara ba tsawon shekaru, kuma babu wanda zai iya hango tasirin iPod, iPad da iPhone.

Don nuna cewa kyautar Nobel ba ta da tabbacin komai, masanin tattalin arziki Paul Krugman ya ce sakan Intanet a 1998.

Kusan shekara ta 2005 za mu ga cewa tasirin Intanet a kan tattalin arziƙi ba zai wuce na na'urar fakis ba.

Tabbas, yin hasashe mara kyau buƙatu ne na Ph.D. a cikin tattalin arziki.

Tarihin Microsoft game da wayoyin hannu zai bayar don shirin gaskiya ko ɗayan waɗancan wasan kwaikwayo bisa dogaro da wautar babban halayyar. Misali muna da wannan magana ta Steve Ballmer da aka ambata a 2007

Babu yiwuwar cewa iPhone zata sami rabon kasuwa mai mahimmanci.

Waɗannan su ne wasu dubunnan hasashen da ya gaza. A zahiri, nayi niyyar kulle na'urori har zuwa 2 ga Janairu. Ba wani abu bane wanda bayan tashe tashen hankula yake faruwa dani dan hango abinda zai faru nan gaba kuma yakai karshe shiga jerin.