How many years does Linux have to live?

Linus work desk

As you know, Linux is 25 years old. It has been his birthday and it has been celebrated in the community with joy. It is a mega-project that has survived despite enemies and predictions that predicted a bad future for the kernel. From 1991 to this August 2016, a quarter of a century has already passed and it still continues, but… How much longer will it continue? Well, the future looks bright, despite not having conquered the desktop sector, which is the only one that remains to dominate (even though it was created for this sector).

The longevity of Linux depends on the development community behind it and it is in good health. It is also so wide that it guarantees incessant development. The project is led by Linus Torvalds, but it is not only his, in fact the code provided by the creator is practically null at the moment. You should know that when Linus leaves his job Greg Kroah-Hartman will be his successor, and after this one will surely come another and so on. There is no need to worry about that.

As for the sustainability, there are so many governments, companies and entities that depend on Linux, that its financing is also guaranteed. In my humble opinion, Linux will survive as long as a better kernel is not created that can easily replace it. But this seems difficult to me, due to the dynamism in the kernel development and evolution, since its developers are not afraid to make radical changes or rewrite entire parts if necessary.

Another threat that can undermine the future of linux It is the little consensus among the community, since without a strong leader like Linus, the diversity of ideas can kill the project (as it happens with many other open source projects, creating derivatives and diversifying the work between projects that compete with each other ). I hope this doesn't happen… So it would be a big mistake for the community to have a total dependence on Torvalds and how to fix it in the post-Linus era.

What do you think? Leave your comments...


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  1.   Aaron said

    A single opinion the Linux community should create a system with all the advantages of their distributions. It would be profitable

  2.   DD said

    The desk stuff already swells your noses a bit. GNU / Linux does not dominate the desktop but damn the lack of it. The future is not about desktop PCs. The future passes through mobile devices and it is where GNU / Linux, with derivations like Android, dominates everything. Its high performance, power, configuration and above all its low licensing costs mean that it has a dominant position today. How many of those who use a desktop PC today could not do what they do on it through a smartphone or tablet? . Mail, Twitter, WhatsApp, Telegram, ... and the PC to play in the absence of a console. The danger for GNU / Linux is that it becomes such a huge monster that it dies of success.

    1.    rhazz said

      «The PC to play in the absence of a console» you have skated, a lot.
      There are many of us who widely prefer to play on the computer instead of on consoles (which I personally like, I clarify, but not as much as the computer).

  3.   Javier said

    Regardless of the fact that you can do many things with mobile devices, even so, I consider it inevitable that the PC will survive. To work regularly, daily, wherever a PC is, take the rest off. And that, in addition to having a desktop computer, I have a laptop, a tablet, a smartphone…. But when it comes to working seriously and continuously, I still prefer a thousand times to do it with the desktop, for comfort, ease and speed.
    And indeed, Gnu / Linux, must continue in the gap for a desktop for PC.

  4.   carlos mario herrera said

    Every time I try GNU \ Linux distributions, I am surprised by their business, educational, and home evolutions, they are incredible, not to mention the amount of free programs it contains; Congratulations on your 25 years and I know that the free software community will continue working and we users will continue to use OS

  5.   JJ said

    It seems to me that the less fame Linux has on PC's, the longer it will live, since together with Mac it is one of the OS that suffers the least from virus attacks, not like Windows. If it rises in fame, companies from other places will come to try to buy it and make it shit like Facebook did with WhatsApp and Instagram or Microsoft with Skype.

    1.    Alan said

      You don't know anything about GPL, do you?